This book by John and Doris Naisbitt is a follow-up to his book “Megatrends.” The authors lived and travelled in China, did extensive interviewing, and developed an institute to analyze what had launched the country from the poverty and backwardness under Mao to becoming an economic power with many millionaires and a growing middle class. China is described as being created into an entirely new social and economic system and political model. The system is described as a “vertical democracy.”
Some of the reviewers on Amazon reflect the discomfort I felt when reading the gentle criticism of the control imposed by the Communist government. Late in the book the authors write about the “three T’s,” which are “Tibet, Taiwan, and Tiananmen.” They then give a scathing criticism of Tibet, saying that 90 percent of the people live as serfs in comparison to the millions of Chinese who have been pulled out of poverty by the economic growth engineered by the central government. Taiwan is described as having China as its largest trading partner. Tiananmen receives harsh although brief criticism. It is described as a tragedy that is still casting clouds over China. And, as much sympathy as we have for China, it has not yet done enough to sweep those clouds away.
The descriptions of how Deng Xiaoping began turning China into a free market powerhouse with government control after Mao’s death is a fascinating story. On the question of why the country decided to use capitalism under communist control is explained by Deng with the aphorism, “It doesn’t matter if the cat is black or white, as long as it catches mice.” The current leader Hu Jintao is quoted as saying, “We will improve policies to encourage people to start businesses.”
There is a discussion of the primary conflict between socialism and capitalism over freedom and fairness. “Do we choose a system where all are equally treated so that no one gets too far ahead? Or do we choose freedom for individuals who through their talents and hard work gain levels of achievements far above others?” It seemed to me the author answers that in the book. The people in China who succeed through talent and hard work are allowed to have much more than others, and the system, according to the author, is working.
The Olympics is undoubtedly a good example of what strong government control can accomplish. The Olympics were considered a great success at the cost of $1.9 billion for venues and $42 billion for infrastructure improvements. The fact that 1.5 million people had to move out of their homes makes it obvious that the construction would have been difficult or impossible in a less authoritarian system.
China opened to foreign support and technology transfer to begin development, restricted foreign shareholdings, and strengthened Chinese corporations by encouraging fierce competition among them. Deng commented when touring a Ford plant in the U.S., “We want to learn from you.” However, the U.S. failed to understand the true meaning of that statement. There is a description of opposing Chinese warlords preparing for battle. One sent twenty boats packed with straw across the river separating them, and the other army unleashed a huge assault with arrows. The boats were pulled back and the 100,000 arrows that were collected to be used against those who had shot them. The Chinese who left to learn in other countries and return to build businesses are called “sea turtles.”
What has been accomplished required more than learning from successful foreign companies. The government had to emancipate the minds of the people to make them the engine to the economic successes. Education was emphasized, and people were taught they could succeed with work instead of coasting along and getting what everyone else was getting. The book mentions the eighteen impoverished famers on a collective that wasn’t growing enough food for survival who secretly agreed to divide the collective in Xiaogang village into private plots at risk of being prosecuted. The result was a marked increase in grain production. Their example became a model for converting State Owned Enterprises into successful free enterprise companies. The government frames the policies and priorities and the people create their own roles. Progress is made “while sustaining order and harmony.” This system is compared to the political system in the U.S. where frequent elections freezes the government into inaction while the politicians posture for reelection. In China, “The constancy of the ruling political party allows long-term planning without the disruption and changing politics of thinking and acting that are focused on elections.”
The book does address problems created by corruption, and describes how the government is working with limited success to eliminate corruption from government. The terrible pollution problems are also discussed. One “sea turtle” commented that she knew she was home when she breathed the polluted air. The book discusses censorship, and mentions that the U.S. has a history of censoring books such as Lady Chatterley’s Lover. I didn’t see how that equates to, for example, the censorship of the Internet. The book mentions two things that surprised me about that. First, it blames companies such as Cisco for building the equipment that allows the censorship. Then it mentions, “Few in China complain about Internet control.” I felt myself wanting to use the crass, “Well duh! when I read that.
China has problems created by the one child policy. There is a large excess of young men. There also is the problem of “six-pocket little emperors,” or little boys with two parents and four grandparents who have no one else to spoil. Oddly, the censorship of the Internet is said to be necessary to keep children from becoming addicted to being on the computer all the time.
I’m guessing the authors would explain the surprisingly low average of three stars of Amazon reviews as being caused by what they call the continuing misunderstanding Americans have of the Chinese people. We impose our views of democracy and freedom when we consider China. The authors end their book with the observation, “To what degree it will match western perceptions troubles on the West. China has its own goals and dreams. How to get there, China and its people will decide.” The Chinese people are accustomed to and comfortable with government control. They don’t care whether the control is a capitalist country with a communist coat. “The Chinese believe in performance legitimacy. If the government governs well, it is perceived as legitimate.” China has achieved its transformation by “actually decentralizing power more than any country in the world.” China calls its market economy “socialism with Chinese characteristics.” The United States is evolving toward socialism with American characteristics.