Social Security Projections

The U.S. deficit continues to grow out of control, and there should have been actions taken to address the problem long before now. However, President Obama’s comments that the deficit is not a short term problem indicates to me we won’t do anything about the deficit for the next four years. Much of the problem is caused by “entitlement” commitments, and President Obama said in his inaugural address that he has no intention of doing anything about those either.

I’m baffled how the American people and the media are going along with the “don’t worry, be happy” approach. Looking at Social Security alone is frightening. A recent article by Chuck Saletta on the Motley Fool points out that each new analysis finds that the program will reach “financial unsustainability” sooner than the previous analyses. The Social Security Trustees reported in 2008 that problems would not be encountered until 2041. The date has now changed to 2033, and that is going to continue to move closer.

Money taken from employees and employers is invested in bonds, and bonds that mature must be replaced with new ones. The older bonds were yielding much more in interest than the ones currently available. The program is projected to earn $5.4 billion less in bond interest in 2012. The fact the Federal Reserve has recently said they are going to artificially keep interest rates low until the unemployment rate begins to drop means the revenue is not going to improve.

I’ve heard some politicians have quietly mentioned changing how the cost of living adjustments are calculated, which will make a tiny dent in the problem. Any politician who suggests helpful reform can look forward to a political advertisement representing him or her pushing an elderly person in a wheel chair over a cliff. I sadly predict the only solution will be that young workers will be forced to give up more of their paychecks so that relatively well-off seniors can continue to be paid their full “entitlement.” Workers already give up 15.3 percent of their earnings to Social Security and Medicare, although half of that is cleverly hidden by calling it “employer contribution.” The net result is that the government gets $7650 for Social Security and Medicare from a person earning $50,000 a year. And that isn’t enough.

I have promised that I will donate to the campaign of any politician having the courage to suggest meaningful reform. That’s why I donated to the Vice Presidential campaign of Representative Paul Ryan. I notice that didn’t do much good, but my promise still holds. The problems won’t be solved until politicians with courage begin to be elected.