America’s Plans for War Against the Soviet Union, 1945-1950

I’ve mentioned that I have been working on a book to explain the decision to build the Rocky Flats Plant where nuclear weapon components were manufactured from 1953 until 1989. The 15 volume set edited by Steven T. Ross and David Alan Rosenberg contains a wealth of information about the war plans created by the military that helps explain that decision. First and foremost is the belief that the objective of the Soviet Union was to select a time when they could invade Western Europe to begin the process of imposing Communist control of the world. The set, which consists of oversized books, “…reproduces in facsimile 98 plans and studies created by the Joint Chiefs of Staff.”

The JCS in 1945 believed that Moscow was not ready to launch a Third World War until they had rebuilt their war machine, but as prudent planners they had to prepare for armed conflict on a global scale earlier than expected. The plans, which were all classified Top Secret or Secret and occasionally were also marked to contain Atomic Energy Commission (AEC) restricted data, were of course all declassified before the series was published. I will warn that you won’t find the volumes on Amazon, or at least I didn’t. My local public library was able to find several of them on interlibrary loan. I’ll give all the detail I know about Volume 1 at the end of this review if a reader wants to try to obtain the volume by the same process.

American war plans included:

  • Emergency War Plans for a conflict during the next fiscal year
  • Mid-Range War Plans for a war two to five years in the future
  • Long Range War Plans for a war five to ten years in the future
  • Industrial Mobilization Plans describing a general war to provide guidance for military and economic mobilization planning
  • Special studies, which describe a global conflict in order to guide long range fiscal planning

Supporting papers included:

  • Estimates of Soviet power (and their overwhelming advantage in men under arms)
  • Logistic feasibility studies of American war plans (which were often  found to not be feasible)
  • Examinations of the impact of atomic weapons on the future of modern warfare (which were not encouraging for the protection of American cities and offensive capabilities)

America and Allies no match for Soviet army:

All of the war plans recognized that the huge Soviet and Satellite armies would be able to overwhelm the relatively small allied forces. Earlier plans listed “…the possession and, until 1949, a presumed monopoly of atomic weapons…” and a large and expanding industrial base to be the main advantages of America and its allies. The plans virtually conceded that the Soviet armies could decisively and quickly take Western Europe and most of the Middle East. The allies hoped to be able to establish and maintain “…bases in Great Britain, Egypt, Japan, and possibly northern India and Greenland, from which to launch the strategic air offensive…The liberation of Western Europe would not be the result of direct military operations, but rather a function of the presumed Soviet collapse under the combined weight of the atomic and conventional aerial attack and the counteroffensive against the southern regions of the USSR…the United States would not seek to defend or recover any positions on the Asian mainland, a position that remained unchanged even after the start of the Korean War.”

As an example of an individual plan, the first was “JIS 80/7, 23 October 1945, Russian Capabilities.” The Joint Intelligence Staff prepared this report “To estimate the Russian political situation with particular emphasis on aims and potentialities for expansion of her sphere of influence by means short of war, by 1 January 1948…” World War II had left the Soviets at a high level of political prestige, but weakened by massive destruction and loss of life. A major weakness was the lack of an atomic bomb capability.

I’ll give you a flavor of what the plans included by summarizing “JCS 1477/1 30 October 1945, Over-All Effect of Atomic Bomb on Wartime Organizations.”

The plan states that the greatest effect of development of the atomic bomb was the security of the United States after another country acquires that weapon. It was noted that an aggressor nation with atomic weapons could “…achieve the effects of Pearl Harbor on a vast and relatively complete scale.”The risk presented by another country acquiring the weapons “…emphasizes the importance not only of readiness for immediate defense, but also for striking first, if necessary, against the source of threatened attack.” The only defense against atomic attack is by destroying the carriers in flight, and lessons from World War II indicated that defense cannot be total. Some planes would get through and cities would be destroyed. It was estimated at the time of the report (30 October 1945), that, “…the United States has a head start which is roughly estimated as the equivalent of five years of technological advantage.” (That estimate wasn’t far off.) It was also stated that the U.S. had control of “…major sources of uranium and other essential ores.” (That statement turned out to be incorrect.) It was recommended that there be an accumulation of a “…stockpile of atomic bombs and other new weapons sufficient to implement United States strategic war plans.” That last statement is an example of why the series goes a long way in supporting the decision to build Rocky Flats.  

I may post reviews of some other volumes, but you’ll have to wait for me to finish the book before you see my full assessment of what is include.

Information on the series:

Steven T. Ross and David Alan Rosenberg, editors, America’s Plans for War Against the Soviet Union 1945-1950, A 15 volume set reproducing in facsimile 98 plans and studies created by the Joint Chiefs of Staff, A Garland Series, 1989-1990. The information in this posting is from Volume 1, which has a subtitle of The Strategic Environment.

The National Security: Its Theory and Practice, 1945-1960

national securityI was able to get this book on an interlibrary loan, but the book wasn’t available on Amazon. The United States Military Academy at West Point held a symposium April 21-23, 1982 with the above title. It has some crucial information about why the decision was made to build a site for construction of more nuclear weapons, which is the subject of my quest to write a book about the Rocky Flats Nuclear Weapons Plant. The book comprises seven essays presented at the symposium with an introduction and conclusion prepared by the editor. The “…burgeoning fears of the U.S.S.R…determined character and magnitude of American security policy.” “What began as a cautious and contested move toward nuclear power in the Truman years evolved under Eisenhower into a massive nuclear arsenal of almost incomprehensible proportions.”

The introduction by Norman A Gaebner discusses how Americans generally viewed the Soviet Union after World War II as “…a valiant ally.” However, diplomats who dealt with the Soviets predicted trouble despite FDR’s assurances that he and Stalin “got along fine.” Events following the war proved the Soviets intended to use the land power it had gained and American politicians took note. Arthur Vandenberg, Republican leader in the Senate wrote in his diary, “FDR’s appeasement of Russia is over.” James Forrestal advocated a showdown with the Soviets in the spring of 1945 rather than later. The United States was in a position of power with its atomic monopoly and two thirds of the world’s capital wealth. The Soviet Union had lost more than 2000 towns and cities, 20 million deaths, and much of its resources. Despite the magnitude of its losses, the U.S.S.R. was becoming increasingly threatening. National Security Council (NSC) documents declared, “The ultimate objective of Soviet-directed world communism is the domination of the world.” Secretary of State Dean Acheson “…developed the promising concept of negotiation from strength.” Consistent with that policy, Truman decided to proceed with the development of the hydrogen bomb.

Richard D Challener wrote that Truman would not have approved a 300 percent increase in the defense budget called for in NSC 68 if the Korean War hadn’t begun. The concept of nuclear deterrence became a key to defense strategy, but the U.S. had only nine atomic bombs in 1946. There were over fifty by the end of 1948. David Rosenberg wrote that Truman viewed the atomic bomb as a weapon of terror and a weapon of first resort. Despite that, he ordered vast increases in production facilities. On July 14, 1949 Truman told his top advisors, “Since we can’t obtain international control we must be the strongest in atomic weapons.” He approved a substantial increase in nuclear production in the fall of 1949 and an additional increase after the outbreak of the Korean War. Those approvals led, in part, to the construction of the Rocky Flats Nuclear Weapons Plant in Colorado. Continue reading

It’s a Banana – Run for You Life – Or Not

banana.svg.medOne of my favorite websites tackled the question “are bananas radioactive?”

The answer, of course, is “yes.”

Radiation is everywhere – all life, including you and me, evolved in a constant bath of radiation. Our bodies can handle a certain amount – though be careful what you google. There’s a lot of wacky stuff about alleged natural cancer cures on the internet.

There are variations in the amount of radiation present in familiar things.

[At] the nearest grocery… started by measuring the ambient radiation in the air at the store: eight microrems. (The rem is a unit of radiation dosage…) … radiation in the banana bin: 15 microrems. Progress at this point was interrupted by a store manager’s inquiry regarding the customer wielding the Geiger counter. Having justified her presence, Una broadened the investigation. Idaho potatoes? Eleven microrems. Kitty litter? A whopping 19. (We presume you’re not eating that.) straightdope

That’s all part of background radiation – “ubiquitous ionizing radiation that people on the planet Earth are exposed to, including natural and artificial sources.” wikipedia

Bananas are only one source. Background radiation varies by location and – especially pertinent for Coloradans – is higher at higher elevation. Radon is the biggest natural source, and is worth considering. I once rejected purchasing a house because of its way-high radon level. I’ve read of places where uranium mine tailings were used as aggregate in concrete for homes – that’s ridiculous. Sealing yourself in with a source is a foolish risk.

Medical procedures are the largest contributor to artificial radiation and obviously that varies a lot from person to person. We expect the benefits of procedures to far outweigh the risks, but whether certain screenings – mammograms, for example – are worth the risk is an interesting debate. Continue reading

NATO Exercise Able Archer Spooks Soviets

Researching to write a book about the justification for the Rocky Flats Nuclear Weapon Plant in Colorado has led me to many fascinating historical facts. A CIA report describes how the Soviets had implemented an intelligence collection system with the acronym name RYAN in 1981 to watch for US preparations for launching a surprise nuclear attack. NATO began a command post exercise codenamed Able Archer in 1983 that triggered significant concern in the Soviet Union. They were familiar with the exercise from previous years and noted with concern that high-level US officials usually not involved would participate. There would even be an appearance by President Reagan. Perhaps even more concerning was that there would be “…a practice drill that took NATO forces through a full-scale simulated release of nuclear weapons.”

Oleg Gordievsky was a KGB Colonel stationed in London and a double agent for British intelligence. He reported to the British that “…the KGB Center sent a flash cable to West European residencies advising them, incorrectly, that US forces in Europe had gone on alert and that troops at some bases were being mobilized.” There was speculation this (nonexistent) alert was a response to the bombing of the US Marine barracks in Lebanon, related to US Army maneuvers, “…or was the beginning of a countdown to a surprise nuclear attack.”

Gordievsky described the reaction in stark terms: “In the tense atmosphere generated by the crises and rhetoric of the past few months, the KGB concluded that American forces had been placed on alert–and might even have begun the countdown to war…. The world did not quite reach the edge of the nuclear abyss during Operation RYAN. But during ABLE ARCHER 83 it had, without realizing it, come frighteningly close–certainly closer than at any time since the Cuban missile crisis of 1962.” [emphasis added]

The Able Archer story has been studied extensively by the US and Britain and journalists. A consistent conclusion is that the US. And Soviet Union came close to war as a result of the Soviet overreaction, and “…only Gordievsky’s timely warning to the West kept things from getting out of hand…” Gordievsky’s information was also “…an epiphany for President Reagan, convincing him that the Kremlin was fearful of a US surprise nuclear attack…”

Reading the reports about Able Archer and the reactions reminds me that the world was a dangerous place when the decision was made to build Rocky Flats. It continued to be a dangerous place until the Soviet Union dissolved.

Rocky Flats Wildlife Refuge Update

The Denver Post had a Sunday front page article titled “Rocky Flats Ten Years After the Cleanup: A Safe Refuge?,” by John Aguilar. I commend the author and the Denver Post for an article that is balanced. There was a time when the media dominantly published the opinions of the anti-Rocky Flats activists. This article presents both sides.

I have always contended that a positive legacy of the Rocky Flats Plant is that it resulted in saving a segment of the high mountain prairie. “Just 16 miles from downtown Denver, it’s a tableau of wild beauty and one that few get to witness so close to a major metropolitan area.” The 5,000 acre Rocky Flats National Wildlife Refuge is scheduled to formally open to the public at the end of 2017. There has already been what was officials called a “soft opening” with one guided hike that occurred on September 25 and another that is scheduled for October 16. You can call 303-289-0936 if you want to go on that hike. The announcement was made on the Rocky Mountain Arsenal National Wildlife Refuge web page and said, “Join us to explore the wildlife, birds, and plants…Please be comfortable hiking up to 3 miles.” A Daily Camera article predictably adds that hikers can go, “…if they are not concerned about radioactive plutonium-239, which officials say is not a danger.”

The usual critics are cited in the Camera and Post articles with their usual warnings about why the public should not go onto the site. One said he wouldn’t let his children go there. I recommend reading the full Post article and note the assurances given by the various public officers. I’m guessing they would be proud  to show their families the beautiful place.

Cancer – Ho Hum

Your smart phone reminds you – time for the annual test. You buy a capsule of nanoparticles – each one graphene with a tiny magnetic core, biodegradable and harmless, so available over-the-counter. If you’ve lost it since last year, you buy the corresponding wrist band to wear after swallowing the capsule.

Inside your body, the nanoparticles spread out. If they encounter some cancerous cells, they bind to them and mobilize some into your blood stream. Passing by the wrist band, they signal a positive result.

“Well, shoot,” you say. “I’ve got cancer. Better make an appointment – hmmm. I’m meeting friends for lunch on Tuesday. Let’s make it Wednesday.”

You don’t even need to see a doctor. Technicians slide you into a radio-frequency unit, maybe after another nanoparticle dose. Radio waves kill every cancer cell in your body – solid tumor, free-floating metastasized, it doesn’t matter – without damage to healthy cells.

“Better repeat the diagnostic test in a month,” the technician warns.

Yeah, yeah… You tap the new date into your phone and go merrily on your way.

Science fiction? Distant future?

Maybe not.

“This May, [Dr. Steven A. Curley, oncologist] filed protocols with the Italian Ministry of Health to test the radio wave machine on humans diagnosed with pancreatic and liver cancer. Pending approval in the fall, human clinical trials will begin in the spring of next year in Naples, Italy.”

The initial studies are aimed at proving the treatment is safe for humans. Success will mean trials to find out how effective it is.

Where did this idea come from? John Kanzius was a retired radio engineer, amateur radio operator, and dying of leukemia. Sick from chemotherapy, he became a citizen scientist, studied the latest cancer research, developed a radiofrequency-based concept to kill cancer cells without invasive surgery or chemotherapy, demonstrated the technique on hot dogs in his basement shop, dogged oncologists until he teamed up with Dr. Curley, and – well – read the story at newsweek.com. (Note how different it is from inventors of perpetual motion machines or pills to turn water into gasoline, who claim persecution.) Continue reading