Parts of this book by Daniel Kahneman were interesting reading and other parts were too much about psychological research to hold my attention. You will enjoy the book if you are a fan of heuristics, which is defined by the Merriam Webster Dictionary as …”involving or serving as an aid to learning, discovery, or problem-solving by experimental and especially trial and error methods.” The book mentions that “applying the rule of thumb” is another way of defining heuristic thinking. The book makes a strong point that we are comfortable in relying on our intuition to address a problem or situation to reach a quick decision and that decision is often wrong. The dust cover of the book “…explains the two systems that drive the way we think. System 1 is fast, intuitive, and emotional; System 2 is slow, more deliberative, and more logical.” There are numerous examples of how our analysis using System 1 often misleads us. The Conclusion includes the observation that when you have an overconfident intuition you are thinking correctly you should “…recognize signs that you are in a cognitive minefield, slow down, and ask for reinforcement from System 2.” Continue reading
Rule of Thumb
Wikipedia has an extensive discussion of this expression. It says it is “…a principle with broad application that is not intended to be strictly accurate or reliable for every situation. It is an easily learned and easily applied procedure for approximately calculating or recalling some value, or for making some determination.” It is compared to heuristic, which is a similar concept used in math, psychology, and computer science. The origin is uncertain, but likely comes several possible instances where the thumb is used to make an imprecise but convenient measurement. There is less evidence that the expression originated from prohibition of using a stick wider than the thumb to beat a wife. Early colonial law often specifically rejected the concept. However, “…the phrase and connection gained currency in 1982, when the U.S. Commission on Civil Rights issued a report on wife abuse, titled ‘Under the Rule of Thumb’.”
Costa Rican Distrust of U.S. Foreign Policy
We were vacationing in Costa Rica when a tour guide on our bus surprised us by announcing that President Obama had refused to help Costa Rica after Nicaragua had moved large numbers of soldiers into Costa Rica for the purpose of “building a new canal.” The guide said Costa Rica has no military and had asked President Obama for help. He then said Mr. Obama’s reaction was to continue his policy of bowing to every belligerent. He emphasized the point by making a series of stiff bows in several directions. The guide said the people of Costa Rica continue to appreciate Ronald Regan and his support for the Contras who fought against the Communist Sandinistas. The guide explained that Daniel Ortega, the Communist ruler of Nicaragua, continues to have designs on Costa Rica, and that the U.S. refused to help. “The Canadians helped and the Nicaraguans withdrew.”
I was fascinated with the story, and began searching the Internet to educate myself. President Obama visited Costa Rica for two days in May 2013. The descriptions of his visit were mostly about the extreme security measures taken for his protection. There were a few hundred people allowed to view his limousine trip through the capital city. A few dozen gathered in the city park to protest the visit. Most complied with the order to stay home and watch television coverage. This is in contrast to John F. Kennedy visiting and wading into adoring crowds. Kennedy is called the “most beloved U.S. President” based on the memories of his visit and the Peace Corp. Continue reading
David and Goliath
Underdogs, Misfits, and the Art of Battling Giants
By Malcolm Gladwell
This book uses David and Goliath as a metaphor, but it’s not the metaphor you might expect. Gladwell spends some time explaining the story and its setting in the ancient world, with notes on the surprising amount of scholarly research devoted to it. We modern Americans misunderstand the story’s intent and have the original message wrong.
Public Domain in the US: copyright expired
We think of David as a hopeless underdog facing an unbeatable foe, saved only by divine intervention. “No one in ancient times would have doubted David’s tactical advantage once it was known he was an expert in slinging.” Gladwell writes that soldiers trained to use sling shots were as formidable as archers. Goliath was a heavily armored infantry warrior and there was no way he could chase down and engage David; he was a sitting duck. (He may have also had acromegaly: speculation on the diseases of historical figures is always intriguing, even if they are seldom provable.) I found this part of the book surprisingly interesting and fun; much better than the “favorite Bible stories for children” sort of idea I had before. Continue reading
On the Lam
William Safire wrote in the New York Times in 1998 that on the lam means “running away” or “being a fugitive from the law…” “The origin of the expression is in heated dispute among slang etymologists.” Allan Pinkerton, the first “private eye” said that pickpockets would say “lam” when they secured a wallet from a victim.” There is a Scandinavian verb lam that as early as 1525 was used to describe a wife “lamming him,” meaning to beat, pound, or strike” her husband. Mark Twain used the term twice to mean “to beat” in both instances. The connection is that “…to avoid a feared lamming (related to slamming), one lams. “
Medicare and Foreign Travel
We recently traveled to Costa Rica with our oldest grandson, and I intend to do a few commentaries about that. This first one is a warning to people on Medicare that, according to the Medicare web site, “In general, health care you get while traveling outside the U.S. isn’t covered.” People are provided a more than 120 page booklet titled “Medicare & You” when they reach 65 and go onto the program. The warning about lack of coverage when you are out of the country is somewhat “hidden” under a title “Part B-Covered Services.” The subtitle is “Travel-health care needed when traveling outside the United States.” Continue reading