This book by Dmitry Orlov predicts a U.S. economic collapse, and it is both interesting and often oddly entertaining. The author was born and grew up in Leningrad, but lived in the U.S. until the mid-seventies. He had several visits to the Soviet Union during the years that political system was preparing to collapse or after it had collapsed. He believes that the U.S. will only have the option of inflating to escape excessive debt or defaulting on obligations. “But the results are the same: a worthless national currency and unhappy international creditors unwilling to extend further credit.” That scenario leads to the need, if the author is correct or partially correct, for individuals to consider what they should do, or prepare to do, if there is a collapse of the U.S. economy. I don’t agree with some of what is written (the risk from global warming, as one example) but I believe the book is worthwhile.
The descriptions of the visits to the Soviet Union are an example of how the author can take the edge off serious matters with clever writing. “The stores were largely empty (in the sense of being quite uncontaminated by consumer goods) and often closed.” He quickly learned a half-liter of vodka could be easily exchanged for ten liters of gasoline, “…giving vodka far greater effective energy density than rocket fuel.” People were willing to exchange items of great value for American jeans. This is an important point. When an economy collapses, it is important to have desirable items to barter for what is needed for survival. The author also warns that, “Access to actual physical resources and assets…and relationships, quickly becomes much more valuable than mere cash.”
The discussions of the Soviet Union are fascinating. Despite President Reagan’s declaration about the “Evil Empire,” there were successes in the Soviet system, which “…achieved universal literacy, universal health care, (and) far less social inequality…” By comparison, the U.S. is the runaway leader in jailing people. (Of course Stalin had the “jailing people lead” when he was sending millions of people to the Gulag.) Later in the book there are descriptions that the Soviet system encouraged people to …not give a rat’s ass…” (described as the Russia word “dofenism”). Calling someone a hard worker was calling them a fool. As an aside, I’ve read in other places that attitude is one of the reasons the Soviet system failed.
A primary basis for the author’s prediction that the U.S. economy is doomed to collapse is the peak of domestic oil production. That has led to a massive flow of capital out of the country to buy imported oil and the subsequent devaluation of the dollar. The author isn’t impressed with the thrashing around with various alternative energies (including “gerbil wheels”). There are several references to the idiotic conversion of food (corn made into ethanol and using the land to produce biofuels) into energy, which gained my agreement. Another reason the author believes the U.S. will follow the path of the Soviet Union is corrupt politics. The practice of having people in the Soviet Union be required to cross out the only slate of candidates available on the ballot under the watchful eye of serious-looking observers resulted in “…astronomically high poll numbers.” On the other hand, “The U.S. has two entrenched, systematically corrupt political parties, whose positions are basically identical. The fact that there are two parties makes the “…stranglehold on power seem more sportsmanlike.” “The Communist party offered just one bitter pill. The two capitalist parties offer a choice of two placebos.”
The descriptions of American companies are entertaining. The people at the top are the “…highly compensated lunch eaters…” who hold degrees in schmoozing and bean counting. The people who actually make the company work are those who have useful degrees in fields such as engineering and computer sciences, which means many of them were educated in other countries. The author thinks companies will be better prepared for an eventual collapse of society if they “eliminate the need to make a profit,” although he doesn’t think the shareholders would like that very much.
The book predicts that an economic collapse in the U.S. will be accompanied by shortages of fuel, food, medicine, consumer goods and breakdowns in transportation systems and infrastructure. There will be hyperinflation, mass layoffs, and despair, confusion, violence, and lawlessness. The lawlessness will be, it is predicted, led by not only urban gangs but also former law enforcers. It is also predicted that transportation will consist of walking, bicycles, and shopping carts. Hoarding is encouraged, and items that would be good to hoard include food, medicine, and barter items such as alcohol, marijuana, razor blades, condoms, and cigarettes. (I would add coffee and seeds to plant a garden to the list.) Of course you will need weapons “…to safeguard all this stuff.” Knowing how to camp would be a good skill. Living somewhere other than a large city would be a good idea, and a small farming community would probably be best.
The Russians were good at making things last forever. A fun example is the elderly Russian who had immigrated to Boston and was frustrated that he couldn’t find a hardware store to sell him replacement springs for his mattress. He observed that Americans throw mattresses away instead of fixing them. That approach will make it difficult for Americans when something they need breaks and the item is either not available for purchase or they don’t have enough money left to buy it.
There is a lengthy discussion of health care in Russia and the U.S., and much of what is said about the health care system in the U.S. isn’t positive. It is advised that “…staying away from doctors, and especially hospitals, seems advisable…” since so many people die from prescribed medicines and infections they get in hospitals.
Understanding how things broke down in the Soviet Union might tell us how things would break down in the U.S. Russian normalcy broke down in a series of steps. One was that people stopped taking authorities seriously, and then the authorities stopped taking each other seriously. The culmination was Boris Yeltsin standing on a tank and referring to the “Former Soviet Union.” Of course things were ugly. “Murders went unsolved; muggings and burglaries were not even investigated.” Any method of providing security was accepted, to include rooftop snipers.
In his conclusion, the author says many people have asked him when he predicts the collapse will happen. He responds that he doesn’t want that before everyone gets a chance to buy his book. He also advises that keeping a sense of humor is a good idea in any circumstance.