It is no mystery why President Obama issued an executive decree that extended the requirements for implementation of the Affordable Care Act on employer plans to 2014. He did that even though he did not and does not (according to my understanding of how laws are made) have the authority to issue decrees that changes a law passed by Congress and that he signed. The President knew there will be outrage when tens of millions of people on employer health insurance plans begin receiving cancellation notices, and that outrage has now been delayed. 

Estimates of the percentages of employer-insured people who will lose their plans were published in 2010 in the Federal Register.  Reading the entire entry is instructive about the complicated process of imposing a regulation. There is a long list of things that will cause a company plan to no longer be legal. Table Three of the entry provides a midrange estimate that 22% of employer plans did not meet the “grandfathered” requirement by 2011, 38% by 2012, and 51% would not meet the requirement by the end of 2013. The high end estimate is that 69% of plans would not meet requirements by the end of 2013. (See Page 34522, Table Three of the link to see the details of the estimate ranges.)

Another source reports that the Obama administration estimated in 2010 that 93 million Americans would be unable to keep their employer-provided health insurance plans under Obamacare. This is happening despite President Obama’s promise that, “If you like your plan, you can keep your plan. Period!” The administration’s message now is that “substandard policies” issued by “the junk insurance industry” will be replaced with better policies. There have been many reports about people who privately bought insurance that has been canceled and don’t agree with that explanation. They are being required to buy insurance that isn’t needed. For example, people beyond child-bearing ages and with no children remaining in the home are required to be insured for maternity care and pediatric dental services. Adding unneeded insurance makes the regulatory-compliant polices to be more expensive and the policies often have higher deductibles.  

There will be people who have positive experiences with the new law. People who did not have coverage or those who are allowed coverage subsidized by payments from the government will be happy.  There are others who will have negative experiences.  I remain skeptical that the net outcome will be that government can solve problems with legislation that imposes increased bureaucracy. I am curious whether the tens of millions of cancelation notices to people who had employer-provided coverage will be mailed before or after the Congressional elections coming in November.