Outsourcing

I just finished reading and reviewing a fascinating book “The Elephant and the Dragon” by Robyn Meredith that describes the growth of the Chinese and Indian economies. The Chinese are characterized as becoming the world’s factory while India is becoming the knowledge center. The Chinese are building what Wal-Mart sells and the Indians are providing the call centers and computer development work. The problem with the book is that it was copyrighted in 2007, and a relative who is very savvy about computer work tells me things are changing. He said it is true that Indian companies theoretically could develop programs much less expensively than American companies because they pay their people a fraction of what is required in the U.S. However, he has direct experience about the often poor results. He said that deliverables often did not meet requirements despite numerous and lengthy conference calls to describe what was wanted. The work would eventually be revised by Americans who were able to communicate sufficiently to understand the requirements and develop the desired products.

I searched and found a source called the “Ashbourne College’s Business Studies Blog.” It refers to one company bringing all of its call center work back to Britain from India because of complaints about a center in Mumbai, India. “The reason for placing back the call centres to UK is that India has low quality of staffs (which) would lead to worse services…”

Another site that offers some insight into the problems with outsourcing to a foreign country is a blog by “Programmer for Hire.” The warning flags go up with the source, who I would guess would prefer to be hired to do programming. However, the content seems appropriate. Friends had hired an Indian company to do programming based on the lure of $12-14/hour rates compared to typical rates of $125/hr for a U.S. company. The author admits he wasn’t the correct choice for a project that had high hopes and a small budget. However, the project did not have a usable product after they had “…paid for something between 600-700 hours of development with a firm in India, and they should have launched 6 weeks ago.” The client asked whether they were available, since to fix the problems they decided it would take the correct person 10 hours, instead of 50 or more with these guys.”

The book “The Elephant and the Dragon” mentions that more companies began to outsource as the result of John Kerry berating CEOs of companies that had already gone that route during his presidential campaign. Politicians sometimes actually are able to inspire. The book observes that the best way for the U.S. to come out ahead is to do a better job of educating its citizens to compete in the world economy and to get our deficits under control.

Syria, the Spanish Civil War, and NATO

I’ve read two separate warnings about Syria that make that civil war even more frightening. The first by Patrick J. Buchanan observes that the Spanish Civil War was “…the Great Rehearsal for World War II. He asks in his title whether the Syrian conflict is a “Dress Rehearsal for a Mideast War?” The other warning is that NATO might be drawn into the conflict if Turkey pursues retaliation against Syria for shooting down one of its planes.

The brutal Spanish Civil War began in 1936 and lasted three years. It pitted Franco’s Fascists against an agglomeration of Socialists, Anarchists, and both Stalinist and Trotskyite Communists. Stalin sent emissaries and officers to command the Nationalists (while he emptied the Spanish treasury of gold as payment for the help). Mussolini sent troops to fight with Franco and Hitler sent his Condor Legion. The planes of the Condor Legion gave air support to Franco and also firebombed the non-military town of Guernica.

President Franklin Delano Roosevelt publically claimed neutrality about the war, primarily because he did not want to lose the Catholic vote. Some factions of the Nationalists were persecuting, torturing, and murdering Catholic priests. FDR said, “We shun commitments which might entangle us in foreign wars…” FDR did approve shipments of military supplies to France and understood that they would be sent to the Spanish Nationalists.

The NATO connection is the source of the other recent warning that history could be in the process of repeating. Politicians had established vast national alliances in the early 1900s in what was thought to be a counterbalance against the threat of war. The alliances instead caused the domino effect leading to World War I when Gavrilo Princip assassinated Archduke Franz Ferdinand in 1914. I’ve always had trouble mentally following the complicated series of events that followed. The assassination led to the Austro-Hungarian invasion of Serbia and Serbia appealed to its Russian ally for help. Russia began mobilizing its army. Germany took the mobilization to be a threat and declared war on Russia. They attacked France through neutral Belgium because France was Russia’s ally. The violation of Belgian neutrality brought Great Britain into the war. The United States joined the war a bit later.

NATO was originally established to oppose the now defunct Warsaw Pact. Turkey, a member of NATO has called for a full meeting to discuss the Syrian downing of a Turkish fighter jet and claims that another was fired on by the Syrians. Syria has a formal defense pact with Iran and is heavily supplied and supported by Russia. The Russians and Chinese have blocked all UN efforts to take action against Syria.

The news out of Syria today does not encourage that the situation will improve. Three senior government officials have been killed in a bombing, creating speculation that others will probably now chose to join the defectors in Turkey. There is a prediction that Assad will go into hiding or to a country that would harbor him “within 36 hours.”Russia is thought to believe a collapse of the Assad regime would be an opening for the U.S. to gain power in the Mideast. I don’t know that I agree. Iran, al Qaeda, and Hezbollah are probably ready to fill any vacuum.

The Syrian army recently was reported to have pulled chemical weapons out of storage. An escalation of hostilities has the ominous possibility of some desperate Syrian commander deciding Saddam Hussein was justified in using chemical weapons against Kurdish villages.

I won’t speculate about the outcome, but I have this disturbing image of someone intentionally carelessly smoking inside an ammunition bunker.

Full Body Burden: Growing up in the Nuclear Shadow of Rocky Flats

body-burdenThis book by Kristen Iversen is a nearly encyclopedic collection of negative stories and rumors about the Rocky Flats nuclear weapon plant and there is a companion review of the book on that link of this web site. The author did a significant amount of research and numerous interviews, but there are indications that some of the information was misinterpreted, misunderstood, or exaggerated.

The author emphasizes that the neighbors believed the Rocky Flats plant made cleaning supplies despite the fact the one headline mentioned in the book celebrating that the plant would be built near Denver referred to the Atomic Energy Commission plans to build an “A-plant.” The theme that no one knew what was going on at Rocky Flats is continued through the author’s childhood despite documentation in the book about several scientists doing sampling and analysis that identified plutonium downwind of the plant after the 1969 fire. Plutonium contamination from the plant had been well-documented and advertised by people who opposed the plant and its mission when Colorado voters considered a constitutional amendment to outlaw production of nuclear weapons components at Rocky Flats in November 1982. Voters decided they wanted the jobs and resulting positive economic impact on the metro area despite the news reports about contamination from the plant. Slightly under a two thirds majority voted against the amendment and in favor of retaining the plant. That vote isn’t mentioned in the book.

I’ve decided I only have enough space for a few of the subjects where I disagree. Where should I start? The descriptions of the 1957 fire in Building 771 and the plutonium contamination from the 903 pad are somewhat similar to factual accounts, although the statement that the 1957 fire might have released “…as much as 92 pounds of plutonium or more…” is clearly an exaggeration. The account of the 1969 fire begins by saying it was in Building 771 and then describes black smoke coming out of the stack of Building 776/777. The only stack visile off site was the one at 771. Also, I saw the plenums after the fire, and could not even see the damage that was reported to the first stage. The other three stages of filtration were undamaged, which means “black smoke” wouldn’t have been coming out of any stack or vent. The orange and white hazmat suits the author mentions weren’t used until decades after the 1969 fire.

The litany of accusations about accidents is less important than the many accusations about health effects of Rocky Flats.  I’ll restrict myself to a few key points. There are discussions about tons of plutonium missing from Rocky Flats, and it is ignored that those “tons” are later accounted for at waste disposal sites. Just about every governmental agency and several private groups have done sampling and analysis of soil samples in the vicinity of the plant, and releases in the tons of plutonium would be quite easy to detect. A ton of weapons grade plutonium contains over 60,000 curies of activity. Add twelve zeros to that number and you arrive at the picocurie unit of measure used for amounts of plutonium in soil.

There are mentions of autopsy samples from people around Rocky Flats that found plutonium contamination. There is also a mention  that plutonium was recently detected in the crawl space of a home near Rocky Flats. There isn’t a person in the world who does not have plutonium contamination and there isn’t a location in the world where you won’t find plutonium  It will be found in any crawl space in any city and in the tissue of any resident in the world.

There is mention of a rancher who had a deformed pig he took to meetings and that thorium was found in the gonads of some of his animals. There are higher levels of background thorium in Colorado than most locations, but they were there before the Rocky Flats plant was constructed. Rocky Flats did not process thorium.

The author thought she had caught the plant in a lie when she wrote, “Despite insistence there has never been a criticality…a memo reports an average of two ‘nuclear criticality infractions’ each month.” “Criticality infraction” was the term used when the aggressive program to prevent criticalities found something in a glovebox that wasn’t mentioned in the strict criticality limits required to be posted on the box. A criticality infraction was certainly not the same as a criticality, although I can understand why that would be confusing. On the subject of criticalities, it is mentioned that during a fire in Building 371, “The criticality alarm blares…indicating there is plutonium contamination in the air.” The alarm that sound when there is airborne plutonium contamination is called the Selective Alpha Air Alarm (SAAM) and not a criticality alarm.

There are other passages in the book that bothered me because of inaccuracy or misinterpretation, but what is important is that the author suspects illnesses of herself, her family, friends, and neighbors were caused by Rocky Flats. One study by Colorado concluded that laborers were and are the most at risk from plutonium released from Rocky Flats, and that risk “…is about the same as a person’s risk from plutonium released during past nuclear weapons testing.” That risk is listed 0.5 in a million. The risk of being killed by a lightning strike is given as 110 in a million. It is estimated that 46 percent of people living in Colorado will develop cancer in their lifetime. So there will be 460,000 out of a million Coloradoans who develop cancer in their lifetimes. It would seem we could find something other than one chance in a million to worry about. I liked Vincent Carroll’s explanation in his opinion column about “Full Body Burden” titled, “Again, raising a false alarm.” The first sentence is, “We never want to stop scaring one another, do we?

The book mentions that an appeals court reversed the class action lawsuit verdict that had awarded hundreds of millions to land and home owners around Rocky Flats. There is no explanation for the why the court took that action. The court ruled that irrational fear cannot be grounds for a judgment. To the extent Plaintiffs rely on anxiety from an increased risk to their health as an interference with the use and enjoyment of their properties, that anxiety must arise from scientifically verifiable evidence regarding the risk and cannot be wholly irrational.”

Since irrational fear is just as debilitating as rational fear, it is my hope that people who have become fearful because of what they read in Ms. Iversen’s book will read my free book about Rocky Flats. Perhaps Chapter 25 will help some people be less fearful. The table of contents lets you go directly to specific chapters. The book is also available for purchase on Amazon as Kindle or paperback for those who prefer to pay for books. The subtitle of my book “An Insider’s View of Rocky Flats” is “Urban Myths Debunked.” I suggest the subtitle for “Full Body Burden” could have been “Urban Myths Perpetuated.”

Supreme Court Refuses to Consider Rocky Flats Lawsuit

News of the Supreme Court action about the Rocky Flats nuclear weapons plant was nearly hidden in a week of momentous rulings on health care and an Arizona law.  The story begins in 1990 when a lawsuit was filed by landowners downwind of the plant following the FBI/EPA raid alleging environmental crimes. The jury in the original trial reached a verdict for the plaintiffs “…because of damages from plutonium contamination.” The decision was possible because one juror who wanted to rule for the defendants was removed by the judge after leaving the jury room to beg for someone to intercede and end harassment by jury members who wanted to find for the plaintiffs.

The announcement of the verdict made the headlines on the front page of the Denver Post in February 2006. Another front page story was written when the Denver-based

U.S. Circuit of Appeals threw out the verdict and sent the case back for a new trial. The court ruled, in part, that the evidence presented by the plaintiffs did not, “…reveal evidence of an increased health risk…” Testimony indicated that the exposure created an “…unquantifiable increased risk of health problems.” The ruling mentioned that irrational fear was not justification for damages.

The Supreme Court refusal to reinstate the judgment and send the case back for a new trial attracted much less news coverage.  The entry about from the ruling in the June 26, 2012 “Colorado Roundup” section of the Denver Post consisted of a headline and four sentences.

Bloomberg had an article by Bob Drummond that gives significantly more space to explaining the history of the suit and the decision of the Supreme Court. I find it curious that the local news barely found space to mention the story.

I have just received a library copy of Kristen Iversen’s book “Full body Burden, Growing up in the shadow of Rocky Flats.” The front flap says the book is “…a detailed and shocking account of the government’s sustained attempt to conceal the effects of the toxic and radioactive waste released by Rocky Flats…” Whoever wrote that statement had to ignore the substantial evidence that concludes Rocky Flats did not harm nearby residents. So far the courts agree with that conclusion.

“An Insider’s View of Rocky Flats, Urban Myths Debunked” is a book that is free on line for anyone interested in what actually happened at and around the plant. The book is also available in paperback and Kindle.

Contractors in Iraq

A recent posting was about Iraq after American combat troops withdrew in December 2011.  I was curious how many contractors remain, and there are some interesting web sites that provided details. One is a primer for someone who is going there as a contractor, and it contains information about the risks and how to prepare yourself to deal with them.

Some of the risks to the contractors are kidnapping, unexploded ordinance, and being shot at. The advise for avoiding kidnapping is to have “…a camouflage passport, which is a faux passport ‘issued’ by a non-existent country. Camouflage passports are used to throw off terrorists and abductors, who may be looking to single out a person from a specific nation.” The advice for unexploded ordinance “…is to stay well clear.” The advice for what to do if you are shot at certainly makes sense. It is to “…move and move fast.” Life insurance is highly recommended.

NPR estimates there are 15,000 workers in the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad and several consulates, which makes it the largest U.S. diplomatic operation abroad. There are as many as 5,000 security contractors carrying assault rifles and flying armed helicopters. There had been as many as 17,000 security contractors the year previously. One official responded to a question about what the contractors do if there is an attack. He answered, “We run. We go. We do not stand and fight.”

Events involving U.S. contractors in Iraq since the troop withdrawal do not bode well for diplomatic relations between the two countries. A New York Times article by Michael S. Schmidt and Eric Schmitt published in January 2012 describes how Iraqi authorities had detained “…a few hundred contractors in recent weeks…” The detentions were mostly at the airport in Baghdad and at checkpoints around the capital. My interpretation of the full article is that Iraqi officials held up the issuing of visas, weapons permits, and authorizations to drive certain routes and then detained the contractors for failure to have current documents. The contractors were held for as long as several weeks, and some were told to leave Iraq or face arrest. Another ominous signal was that the Maliki’s son began evicting Western companies and contractors from the heavily fortified “Green Zone.”

Why would anyone want to work as a contractor in Iraq when there are so many risks and now the Iraqi government is actively working to make those people less than welcome? The answer is, of course, money. There are reports that the guards in private security firms are paid between $400 and $1000/day. I’m not certain either of those amounts would justify the risks, but some people apparently think they do.

I remain baffled by the events in Iraq. I certainly believe all the polling data that most Iraqis resented the presence of American soldiers, although I also believe that most of those soldiers would have much preferred to have been somewhere else also. They were there because their commander told them they had a mission to make Iraq safer for Iraqis. They gave the Iraqis the chance to make that a reality; although it isn’t yet certain the Iraqis will actually take advantage of the opportunity they have been given.

There were many accusations that the Iraqi war was really about the U.S. coveting Iraq’s oil. We apparently didn’t do a very good job of grabbing that oil while our soldiers were there, because it is estimated 90 percent of the government’s income is from oil. That income depends on tens of thousands of foreign workers.  Mr. Maliki is apparently more interested in solidifying his standing with Iran than making workers providing the money for his budget comfortable that they will be safe.

Maybe it is true that the Iraqi War was a mistake. Maybe they didn’t deserve the sacrifices of our soldiers, their families, and the rest of our country. I’ll say again that Iraq has been given a wonderful opportunity to make their country into a peaceful place to live because of American and English blood and treasure. We’ll see what they ultimately decide to do with that opportunity. I’m not optimistic that their current leader is interested in more than corruption and abuses of power while bowing to the Iranians. I hope I’m wrong. Our dead and injured soldiers and their families certainly deserve a better outcome.

Iraq after American Troops

I’ve been reading about Iraq after American combat troops withdrew in December 2011.  The common criticism of the Iraq war was that it was “about nothing but oil,” and there is some interesting recent news about Iraq and oil. An article by Kay Johnson in the Associate Press titled “Again a power in OPEC, Iraq could shift landscape” reports that Iraq has been rapidly expanding oil production. The increase in oil being produced in Iraq is likely to complicate OPEC’s efforts to influence world prices.

Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Malaki leads a Shiite-dominated coalition that has close ties with Iran, and Iraq is officially backing Iran’s push to set lower production limits to keep oil prices high. However, it is countermanding Iran’s desires by expanding oil production. “Iraq recently reached production of 3 million barrels per day, a level not seen since the 2003 U.S.-led invasion that ousted Saddam Hussein. It is on track to become OPEC’s second largest producer in the coming year, surpassing Iran and trailing only Saudi Arabia.”  It is estimated that Iraq could double production, which is the basis for the predictions of Iraq’s increasing influence on OPEC and the world.

What this means in Middle East and world politics is complicated. The increased economic clout available to Iraq from oil production (which provides 95 percent of government revenues) could result in economic prosperity and freedoms previously unimagined in that country. However, strife between the Sunnis and Shiites continues to be a problem. Shiite pilgrims trekking toward a shrine in Baghdad were recently attacked with car bombs. There were 93 people killed and 312 wounded according to an article from Mohammed Tawfeeq of CNN.  June 14 was the deadliest day in the country since the U.S. withdrew its troops.

I’ve posted several recent reviews and blogs about the Iraq war. The blog posting on June 13, 2012 has the comment, “…victory will not come from the service and sacrifice of the soldiers who fought in Iraq. That will happen, if it happens, within the culture of Islam. The soldiers have only functioned as the soil for the seed of freedom. The ultimate victory, if it is achieved must happen within Islam.”

Terrorism in Iraq is no longer justified by the presence of foreign soldiers. Now the people of Iraq have to decide whether indiscriminate killing of civilians based on how they worship is justified. I suggest they look at the genius of the American founders in insisting on allowing freedom of religion. I would speculate that any reasonable person would conclude that the “American experiment” resulted in a life style for citizens that the rest of the world envies. I see from afar that Iraq is at a crossroads, and I sincerely wish the best for them.