Category Archives: Nuclear Weapons

The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: An Enduring Debate

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spread-of-nuclear-weaponsThis book written by Scott D. Sagan and Kenneth N. Waltz is interesting because the two authors, as is indicated by the title, take radically different positions on the threat from the spread of nuclear weapons. I’ll let the authors explain further from the Preface. “What are the likely consequences of the spread of nuclear weapons? The answer is by no means certain or simple. Indeed, the readers will discover we disagree about the central issue. Kenneth Walsh argues that the fear of the spread of nuclear weapons is exaggerated: ‘More may be better’ since new nuclear states will use their weapons to deter other countries from attacking them. Scott Sagan argues that the spread of nuclear weapons will make the world less stable. ‘More will be worse’ since some new nuclear states will engage in preventive wars, fail to build survivable forces, or have serious nuclear weapons accidents.” That’s a good summary of what they say in the book, although I didn’t find out what the “fail to build survivable forces” has to do with the debate.

Kenneth Walsh takes the lead with his proposal that “More May be Better.” He points out that the world had “…enjoyed more years of peace since 1945 than had been known in modern history, if peace is defined as the absence of general war among the major states of the world.” He argues that, “War becomes less likely as the costs of war rise in relation to possible gains.” The incentive for the major nuclear powers to begin an exchange makes it clear to even the most insane leader that there will be little to gain since each side has sufficient nuclear stockpiles to destroy the other. That easy to understand fact has prevented World War III for seventy years while there have been nuclear weapon stockpiles in the many tens of thousands of weapons. “Deterrence is achieved not through the ability to defend but through the ability to punish.” Walsh writes, “Early in the Cold War, the United States deterred the Soviet Union, and in due course, the Soviet Union deterred the United States.” He observes that he believes “The presence of nuclear weapons makes war less likely…Nuclear weapons have not been fired in anger in a world in which more than one country has them.” Continue reading →

Facing Nuclear War

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facing-nuclear-warI’ve heard many arguments about the morality of nuclear weapons, and I decided to read this book that presents a Christian viewpoint. The book (published in 1982) opens with the statement that, “Nuclear War has emerged as the chief moral issue of our time.” The author states that he is a social scientist, but he “…wrote this primarily as a Christian pacifist…I simply plead for God’s children to come halfway from wherever they are and at least agree on nuclear pacifism.” I appreciated the upfront declaration of where the author stands.

There is a question about why the author thinks this time is crucial, since it was more than three decades from Hiroshima and Nagasaki to when the book was published. He answers that the huge increases in stockpiles of nuclear weapons and deliverable weapons with the Multiple Independently-Targetable Reentry Vehicle (MIRV) had changed everything. The Soviets were soon also “MIRVing” their missiles. The MIRVs allowed the targets for U.S. missiles to increase to 1650 cities and military targets from the previous 550 targets without adding more missiles. Perhaps even more troubling to the author was that the missiles had become much more accurate. The U.S. missiles were said to be able to hit a target within 300 feet, which would equate to a bull’s eye with a nuclear weapon. That increased accuracy, the author believed, might lure one side into making a first strike with the hope of wiping out the others silos and missiles. Such a first strike could therefore overcome the restraint imposed by Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD). “The U.S. policy of a counterforce or first-strike option gradually emerged over several years and was confirmed by Presidential Directive 59 issued by President Carter in August 1980.” Instead of MAD, planners began to talk about “…fighting small or limited nuclear wars.” Vice-President George H.W. Bush “…said a nuclear war could be fought and won.” Continue reading →

Nuclear Winter: The Evidence and the Risks

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nuclear-winterThis book by Owen Greene, Ian Percival, and Irene Ridge reminded me of Carl Sagan’s public campaign to frighten people about nuclear weapons while I wondered why what happened after a nuclear holocaust would be more frightening than the holocaust itself. I thought I should educate myself about what frightened people more than the direct effects of a nuclear detonation. The book mentions that the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences published a study in 1982 that the smoke from nuclear explosions could “…blot out nearly all the sunlight from half of Earth for weeks on end. The key factor that scientists had neglected for over thirty years was smoke!” The warning prompted five American scientists; Turco, Toon, Ackerman, Pollack, and Sagan (revered in Nuclear Winter circles as TTAPS) to calculate that “…summer could be turned into winter…” Nuclear explosions would ignite fires of everything combustible in and around cities. The smoke would combine with the ejected dust to create a long list of effects. Harvests would be reduced for two years or more, countless plants and animals would become extinct, there would be deaths from collapse of medical services, famine, and epidemics. “Human suffering would be world-wide and on a scale almost beyond comprehension.

The book presents a list of nuclear weapons stockpiles as of 1985 (predating India and China). The overall total was estimated at 49,600 with a total yield of approximately 15,000 megatons. For those who often question why there were so many weapons, there is a listing of “Targeting Categories” from the U.S. Department of Defense dated March, 1980. The listing which was said to be “only illustrative,” includes: Soviet Nuclear Forces (more than 2,000 targets), Military and Political Leadership (about 3,000), Conventional Military Forces (about 15,000),Economic and Industrial Targets (about 15,000)

Soviet priorities were said to “…be similar.” Continue reading →

Now it Can be Told

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now-it-can-be-toldThis book was written, as stated on the cover page, By Leslie R. Groves, Lieutenant General, U.S. Army, Retired. I’ve read several books about the Manhattan Project, and I would put this on at the top of the list to someone who has just developed an interest in the subject. It describes in no uncertain terms the complexity and difficulty of what was being sought and the remarkable achievements that resulted. To General Groves’ credit, he dedicates the book, “To the men and women of the Manhattan Project, and to all those who aided them in their yet unparalleled accomplishment.” I was impressed by the number of times Groves wrote about something going wrong because of something he had done. He shied away from blaming others for problems and gave credit to those who suggested some insight or approach that he had not considered.  My “personal review” of the book that I prepared for use in a new book I’m researching about the history of the Rocky Flats Nuclear Weapons Plant covers twenty-three pages. I promise to impose a much shorter version in this review.

Groves was in charge constructing the Pentagon when he was told he had been selected by the Secretary of War for an important project, and that his selection had been approved by President Roosevelt. I was surprised that Groves knew about what he called “…the atomic development program…,” and responded unenthusiastically, “Oh, that thing.” He met with his commanding General who told him, “The basic research and development are done. You just have to take the rough designs, put them in final shape, build some plants and organize an operating force and your job will be finished and the war will be over.” Groves admits in his book that it took weeks before he had a comprehension of, “…how overoptimistic an outlook he had presented.”

Groves describes the research by physicists that led some to conclude an atomic bomb was possible. Lise Meitner explained to Otto Hahn that the results of his research in Germany indicated the uranium atom could be split and that the resulting fission (a term developed by Meitner and her nephew) would release enormous amounts of energy. The genesis of the Manhattan Project was initiated by scientists Hitler drove out of Germany. Many came to America, and they feared what would happen if the Germans were the first to develop the bomb. One of the problems they faced was that the “…American-born scientists, in the main, did not have so acute and appreciation of the danger…” The process that resulted in Franklin Roosevelt approving research is described in numerous sources, but the Groves account is, in my estimation, adequately complete and to the point. Continue reading →

FREE Kindle eBook: “An Insider’s View of Rocky Flats”

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book_cvr3D_sm_pngMany of you have either read the original online version (which is no longer available) or downloaded the pre-publication PDF version of An Insider’s View of Rocky Flats: Urban Myths Debunked. And special thanks to a sizable number of you who have purchased the Paperback version of the book from Amazon.

My original purpose in writing An Insider’s View… was to provide an accurate biographical account of the Rocky Flats story to as broad an audience as possible.

Consistent with that objective, I’m now offering the Kindle version of the An Insider’s View… FREE for 3 days beginning March 6, 2015. I encourage you to take advantage of this FREE ebook offer even if you purchased the paperback or downloaded the pre-publication PDF book from the RockyFlatsFacts.com website. That’s because – unlike the paperback and PDF which are text-only documents – the Kindle ebook contains the added bonus of over 2 dozen full-color (unclassified) photos that I think you’ll find memorable including one of burning plutonium (in a glovebox!) and two photos of plutonium ingots.

Don’t be put off if you don’t already own a Kindle reader: you don’t need one. You can download an entirely FREE Kindle ebook reader app to your PC, Mac, or mobile device by clicking here. (Clicking link will take you to Kindle reader app installer webpage.) Trust me, it is easy and it works just fine.

I do have a couple of requests to go along with this free Kindle ebook offer. First, I know that I’ve only a small fraction of email addresses for people interested in Rocky Flats news and information. Please forward this message to anyone you think might want to get the FREE An Insider’s View Kindle ebook with its cool photos. And if you enjoy the Kindle ebook version of An Insider’s View, please consider writing a short review of the ebook at Amazon.com.

Yes, A Second FREE Kindle eBook…

FIM_3D_Cover_341pxMy second request is that you take a look at my two more recent fiction books. I published these as collaborative efforts with my grandchildren who served as “Creative Staff and Illustrators.” The first book in the series is Angry Pigs Organized Against Gerbils: The Farmer Island War, and the more recent sequel is Farmer Island Magic.

To entice you further, I’m offering the Kindle ebook version of Farmer Island Magic FREE for the 3-day period beginning March 6, 2015. Of course, I’m hoping that you will eventually consider purchasing one or both of these books in paperback.

And once again, if you read one of my Farmer Island books and enjoy it, please consider writing a short review on Amazon.com and/or refer the book(s) to a friend, relative, or colleague.

Rocky Flats Controlled Burn Delayed

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There was a commentary posted a couple of weeks ago about the proposal to perform a controlled burn in an area of the wildlife refuge in the vicinity of the closed Rocky Flats Plant. Activists who have developed a career of protesting anything about the Plant that produced nuclear weapons parts, including plutonium parts, have done their usual fine job of exaggeration risks to the point the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service has announced the burn will be postponed. The article by Bruce Finely of the Denver Post announcing the decision also manages to repeat the inflammatory statement that Rocky Flats “…became an environmental disaster.”

The agency managing the refuge said they “…still favor the long-planned 701 acre burn—based on science—as the best way to convert Rocky Flats into a healthy wildlife refuge and protect a massive new housing development in the area.” However, they bowed to ominous warnings and said, “…we have heard concerns from the public and we want to take time to further engage in dialogue on these issues.” The burn has been issued the necessary permits, including one from the Colorado Department of Health and Environment. All agency reports had pointed out that the burn would not present a safety problem. The levels of plutonium in the area the burn was proposed are virtually the same as levels throughout the Front Range that have existed since the era of atmospheric testing of nuclear weapons.

An official of the Fish and Wildlife explains, “…we have heard concerns from the public and we want to engage in further dialogue on these issues…As good neighbors, we want to assure the public that safety is our absolute priority.”

I mentioned in my previous commentary that I didn’t care much about the decision about the burn. I was wrong. I find myself discouraged. Once again public opinion and the actions of government agencies have been manipulated by inflammatory and inaccurate comments that succeeded in creating unwarranted fear. Science and reason are once again losing to fear mongering.

I have a prediction. There will be sampling and analysis of smoke from the burn if it is eventually approved and performed. It will be ominously reported that plutonium was found in the smoke. It won’t be mentioned that there would be equivalent amounts of plutonium found in smoke from a grass fire near Grand Junction, Limon, or anywhere in the world.